How to Calculate Billboard ROI When There Are No Clicks

Billboards don't have a click-through rate, which makes many business owners nervous. But billboard ROI can be estimated with reasonable confidence if you plan for it. Here's the formula, how to find the numbers, and a worked example.

This guide is part of our complete guide to measuring billboard, TV and radio advertising.

The basic formula

ROI = (Incremental gross profit − Campaign cost) ÷ Campaign cost × 100

Three things to notice:

1. Incremental: only sales that happened because of the billboard, not sales you'd have made anyway.
2. Gross profit, not revenue: subtract the cost of delivering what you sold.
3. Campaign cost: media, production, installation, design and any agency fees.

Step 1: Set a baseline

Before the campaign, record at least several weeks of:

• Sales (total and by location, if you have several)
• Website traffic, especially direct and branded search
• Calls and enquiries
• Foot traffic, if you track it

Note seasonality. Comparing December to November isn't a fair test for most businesses; compare to the same period last year too.

Step 2: Build in tracking

• A vanity URL used only on the billboard (e.g., yourbrand.ca/drive)
• A unique promo code
• A dedicated phone number where relevant
• A "How did you hear about us?" question
• Consented location data for store visits (how foot traffic attribution works)

Tracked responses are only part of the effect. Many people see a board and later search your name or walk in. So also use Step 3.

Step 3: Use test and control

The strongest method: run the billboard in one area and not in a comparable area, then compare the change in sales in each.

	Test area (billboard)	Control area (no billboard)
Baseline weekly sales	$20,000	$18,000
Campaign weekly sales	$24,000	$18,900
Change	+20%	+5%
Lift attributable to billboard	15 percentage points

The control shows that 5% growth would have happened anyway, so the billboard's estimated incremental lift is about 15% of baseline.

Step 4: Worked example

A home services company runs a four-week billboard campaign.

• Campaign cost (media + production): $12,000
• Baseline revenue in the test area: $20,000/week
• Incremental lift (from test vs. control): 15% → $3,000/week
• Over 4 weeks: $12,000 incremental revenue
• Gross margin: 50% → $6,000 incremental gross profit

ROI = ($6,000 − $12,000) ÷ $12,000 = −50% on first purchases.

That looks bad, until you include customer lifetime value. If each new customer buys again twice more on average over the next year, the incremental gross profit from those customers is roughly $18,000, making ROI +50%. This is why retention matters so much to advertising returns.

(Figures are illustrative. Use your own numbers.)

Step 5: Compare cost efficiency with CPM

CPM = Campaign cost ÷ Impressions × 1,000

If a board costs $8,000 for four weeks and the vendor estimates 800,000 impressions, the CPM is $10. Comparing CPMs across billboards, radio and digital shows which delivers reach most efficiently, but CPM measures delivery, not results. Always pair it with response and sales data.

What else billboards deliver

Some value doesn't show up in first-month sales:

• Brand awareness that lowers the cost of other channels (why offline ads make digital cheaper)
• Credibility: "I've seen them around"
• Recruitment and partner interest

Measure these with brand lift surveys where the budget justifies it.

If ROI is weak

Check location, creative and call to action before blaming the channel. Our diagnostic guide, high visibility, low sales, walks through the usual causes. Location choice matters most, as our billboard advertising guide explains. And make sure your frequency was high enough for the message to stick.